SHAOXING BOYI AUTO PARTS CO., LTD.

绍兴博亿汽车零部件有限公司


The demand for auto parts is increasing rapidly, and the independent brand is welcoming the broad ma

Auto industry "Golden Decade", independent brand or renew smartphone brilliance

The rapid development of China's economy and the rapid improvement of people's living standards have directly contributed to the "golden Decade" of China's auto industry. Cars also from the original luxury, into almost every household necessities.

The development of the independent brand is by leaps and bounds, the car makes more and more good, the sales are also more and more high, already can occupy half of the Chinese automobile market share, especially the SUV market, is the own brand world. With the increase in sales, independent brands have gradually dumped the "low-end" hats, gradually to the middle and high-end market penetration. The auspicious collar gram and the Great Wall Wei faction are the outstanding representatives.

In addition to their own feelings, the data can fully explain the problem. According to the latest sales data in October 2017, only the independent brand to achieve year-on-year, chain double growth. The absolute value is far ahead of the joint venture brand and imported models, compared to the same year, the chain in a significant decline in the Peugeot, Citroen and other brands as the representative of the French car and to Cadillac, JEEP, Ford and other brands as the representative of the United States, independent brand sales in the growth rate has maintained a steady upward trend. At the same time, China's auto market is no longer the dominant advantage of the developed countries such as Germany, Japan and the United States, and the economic growth brought by the strong people's wealth is pushing made into the world stage.



Parts or components enterprises will benefit for a long time

Thanks to supply chain management, auto parts enterprises and vehicle enterprises have established long-term strategic cooperative relations, and its technical and quality level in the development and production of the vehicle enterprise interaction with the process of continuous improvement. FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC, Changan and other large independent brands of the rapid development of vehicle enterprises, will further promote domestic independent auto parts enterprises high-speed growth.

In addition, in line with the quality of domestic car upgrading, domestic auto parts enterprises, the core technology is gradually upgrading, competitiveness has been strengthened.

Data show that China's car ownership has increased year by decade, more than 172 million vehicles in 2015 years, the country has 40 cities in the number of cars in excess of millions, the United States this figure of 265 million vehicles. In the next 5 years, China is expected to sell at least 25 million vehicles a year, and by 2020 China will have about 300 million vehicles. With the increase of car ownership, the development of automobile aftermarket market in our country is worth looking forward to, which will also bring about large market demand of auto parts.

At present, China is in the alternating phase of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, most of them face the traditional fuel car, on the other hand, accelerate the research and development on the new energy vehicle manufacturing, and seek partners. Today, we can see that there are more and more different kinds of fuel-driven cars on the road, the era of the march not only does not affect the number of cars in each city, but increase the market total, the car market in the future will flourish and reach a new height. However, whether it is a fuel car or a non-fuel vehicle, all this is inseparable from the supply of auto parts.

For auto Parts market, the development prospect of China's smartphone industry can be likened to the rise of the process. Millet, Huawei, OPPO, Vivo and other domestic brands with inexpensive products to capture market share, gradually to the middle and high-end areas of penetration, but also led to the rapid development of domestic mobile phone supply chain.

According to the same logic, domestic auto parts market is expected to usher in a broad development prospects.



Auto industry chain Bull Stock Frequency

In fact, the upgrading of domestic auto industry brought about by the enterprise development dividend, has been gradually reflected in the share price of some companies. Geely Auto became the China and China Evergrande and other internal housing shares of Hong Kong leader, directly led to the bull of Hong Kong equities this year. Geely's share price has risen 2.7 times-fold this year alone, and has risen by more than 11 times-fold since January 1, 2016. A-shares SAIC group and Weichai Power and other vehicles and accessories enterprises stock prices have also strengthened.

As Geely, SAIC and Guangzhou Automobile and other domestic enterprises of the important suppliers, Zhejiang Xian Tong's performance also benefited from this.

Underestimate the value of industry giants, market share continues to grow

Under the trend of the rising of the independent brand car, the import substitution of the sealing strip industry will accelerate. According to the average of 45 meters per vehicle to calculate, 2016 domestic seal market space of about 18 billion yuan. Industry in the domestic market share of 32%, but some of the outstanding enterprises in recent years has reached even more than foreign-funded companies, and the price is lower than foreign products.

With the promotion of customer recognition, the relevant domestic enterprises will rely on product cost-effective, rapid response capacity and flexible production capacity to quickly achieve import substitution.

Zhejiang Xian Tong In this area advantages obvious, market share will gradually improve, the performance ushered in a rapid growth period. The company is a small number of domestic production of European-style guide trough enterprises, the product pass rate of up to 95%, far above the industry average level. After years of deep plowing, the company has been recognized by most car companies, and its growth model has also changed. Prior to the main binding explosion models, the future is expected to be a leading company, in the background of the rise of the independent brand car constantly improve market share.

From a longer-term perspective, the company will certainly expand the field of joint ventures and foreign-funded vehicles. At present, has successfully developed SAIC-GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and other joint venture foreign customers, the company's internal and external carrot, will be in the business and technology to bring new breakthroughs, long-term view of clear path and unlimited prospects.

Zhejiang Xian Tong Main automotive seals, metal 锟 and other parts of the press, product technology in the industry occupies a leading position, supporting the Independent brand star models, high certainty of performance growth. The company is a leading supplier of automotive seals, import substitution gradually strengthened, automotive seal matching Geely Hao Department, wuling Macro-light, Guangzhou auto GS, SAIC-Rong series, such as a variety of explosion models, high performance growth with certainty.

In recent years, the company's high margin products European-style window guide trough continuous volume, revenue accounted for promotion, the company's gross margin is expected to stabilize in the rise. The company's European car window guide Trough product gross profit margin as high as 60%. European guide trough 2015 revenue accounted for 11%, 2016 accounted for 20%, 2017 is expected to continue to rise to about 30%. 2017 first quarter gross profit margin of 48%, higher than 2016 annual gross margin level of 46%.

Capacity expansion of twice times, supporting the continued high growth in performance. Companies in 2016 and 2017, the new 23 million-meter and 60 million-meter rubber car seals capacity, and take into account the new product price higher, capacity enough to support revenue and performance volume growth of more than twice times, is expected to 2020 revenue scale of 2 billion yuan.

The company made 90% of the production of molds, can quickly follow the development of the pace of the host plant, but also to reduce the cost of purchasing molds, but also improve the product yield. Efficient simultaneous development and better yield than average 5~10% can help companies to further open market space for downstream customers. European-style window guide trough from the original 300~500 yuan to 500~700 yuan, superimposed the concept of price increase, market space 50%, gross profit margin with the change of the new technology significantly improved.

Merchants, Haitong, founder, Shen Wanhongyuan and other major brokers have given praise. According to the average forecast of the major brokerages, the company's net profit of 2017, 2018 and 2019 were 231 million, 328 million and 447 million respectively, the growth rate was 54.11%, 41.69%, 36.38% respectively, the corresponding dynamic P/E ratios were 21.53 times times, 15.21 times times, 11.16 times times.

Joaquin Securities November Research report that: we forecast the company from 2017 to 2019 earnings per share of 0.93 yuan, 1.33 yuan and 1.83 yuan respectively. The return on net assets continued to rise, giving a higher investment rating.

Small and medium market stocks may rise again, the future market can be

Zhejiang Xian Tong Since the IPO earlier this year, the stock price climbed sharply, twice times more. But in the "28" or even "19" market repression, the company's share price with small and medium market shares in the late fall, coupled with the gradual squeeze of new stock bubbles, the risk of a large release, the valuation regression reasonable even underestimate the range.

Superimposed at the end of the fund to the White Horse and blue chip recently killed, the game direction changes in the game, next year is expected to usher in the "28 switch" market, small and medium-sized market share may rise again.

Company performance, Zhejiang Xian Tong 2016 annual income growth of 38.21%, net profit growth of 70.98%, and then go back we can see, Zhejiang cents in the performance of three consecutive years of steady rise, repeatedly hit new highs. Zhejiang Xian Tong The latest 20,173 quarterly earnings data show: three quarterly operating income of 496 million yuan, growth of 32.98% per cent, net profit of 122 million yuan, an increase of 52.39%. However, good performance did not immediately bring good market effect to Zhejiang Xian Tong, the stock price of Zhejiang cents even appeared contrary to the trend.

Company performance is linked to the share price, performance is the support of stock prices, performance, as long as the performance is good enough, the stock price will return to its height sooner or later.

By the new energy vehicles brought by the tuyere, coupled with the accelerated landing of relevant policies, the auto industry will again usher in further development opportunities, at the same time, the entire automotive industry in the small and medium-sized enterprises will inevitably flourish, to make up for this market demand gap. Zhejiang Xian Tong has a high degree of customer recognition, or can stand out in the market fight.


汽车行业“黄金十年”,自主品牌或再续智能手机辉煌

中国经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的迅速提高,直接促成了中国汽车行业的“黄金十年”。汽车也从原本的奢侈品,变成了几乎家家必备的日用品。

自主品牌的发展更是突飞猛进,车造得越来越好,销量也越来越高,已经可以占据中国汽车市场份额的半壁江山,尤其是SUV市场,更是自主品牌的天下。伴随着销量的增长,自主品牌也逐步甩掉了“低端”帽子,逐步向中高端市场渗透。吉利领克和长城魏派便是其中的杰出代表。

除了自身感受外,数据也可以充分说明问题。根据2017年10月的最新销售数据,只有自主品牌实现同比、环比双增长。绝对值更是遥遥领先合资品牌和进口车型,相比于同比、环比均在大幅下降的以标致、雪铁龙等品牌为代表的法系汽车和以凯迪拉克、JEEP、福特等品牌为代表的美系汽车,自主品牌的销量在增速上仍保持着平稳上升趋势。与此同时,中国汽车市场不再是德、日、美等发达国家占据主导优势,国强民富带来的经济增长正在把made in china推上世界舞台。


零部件企业或将长期受益

得益于供应链管理,汽车零部件企业与整车企业建立了长期战略合作关系,其技术和质量水平在与整车企业的研发生产互动过程中不断提升。一汽、东风、上汽、长安等大型自主品牌整车企业的快速发展,必将进一步带动国内自主汽车零部件企业的高速成长。

除此之外,配合国产汽车的品质升级,国产汽车零部件企业的核心技术也在逐步提升,竞争力不断加强。

数据显示,我国汽车保有量逐年上升,2015年超过1.72亿辆,全国有40个城市的汽车保有量超过百万辆,美国的这一数字为2.65亿辆。未来5年,预计中国每年将至少售出2500万辆汽车,到2020年,中国的汽车保有量将达到3亿辆左右。伴随着汽车保有量的逐年上升,我国汽车售后市场的发展也值得期待,这也必将带来汽车零部件的大量市场需求。

目前中国正处在传统燃油汽车和新能源汽车共存交替的阶段,大多数汽车厂商一方面面对传统燃油汽车的不舍,另一方面在新能源汽车制造上加速研发上市,并寻求合作伙伴。时至今日,我们能看到马路上出现了越来越多各种不同燃料驱动的汽车,时代的迈进非但不影响各个城市的汽车保有量,反而增加了市面的汽车总数,汽车市场在未来必将蓬勃发展并到达一个新高度。然而,无论是燃油车还是非燃油车,这一切统统离不开汽车零部件的供应。

对于汽车零部件市场而言,其发展前景可以类比我国智能手机行业的崛起历程。小米、华为、OPPO、Vivo等国产整机品牌凭借物美价廉的产品夺取市场份额后,逐步向中高端领域渗透,同时也带动国产手机供应链的快速发展。

参照相同的逻辑,国产汽车零部件市场也有望迎来广阔的发展前景。

汽车产业链牛股频现

事实上,国产汽车行业的升级换代带来的企业发展红利,已经逐渐反映在部分公司的股价上。吉利汽车成为与融创中国和中国恒大等内房股比肩的港股龙头,直接带动了今年港股的大牛市。仅今年以来,吉利汽车股价就已经上涨2.7倍,从2016年1月1日至今更是累计上涨超11倍。A股上汽集团和潍柴动力等整车和配件企业的股价也相继走强。

作为吉利、上汽和广汽等国产整车企业的重要供应商,浙江仙通的业绩也受益于此。

低估值行业巨头,市场份额持续增长

在自主品牌车崛起的大趋势下,密封条行业进口替代必将加速推进。按照每辆车平均需要45米密封条测算,2016年国内密封条市场空间约为180亿元。行业里内资企业市场份额为32%,但部分内资优秀企业的技术近几年已经达到甚至超过外资企业,且价格上低于外资产品。

随着客户认可度的提升,相关内资企业将凭借产品性价比、快速响应能力和柔性生产能力迅速实现进口替代。

浙江仙通在这方面优势明显,市场份额将逐渐提升,业绩迎来快速增长期。公司是国内少有的能够量产欧式导槽的企业,产品合格率高达95%,远高于业内平均水平。经过多年深耕,公司获得大多车企认可,其成长模式也发生转变。此前主要绑定爆款车型,未来则有望作为龙头公司,在自主品牌汽车崛起的背景下不断提升市场份额。

从更长远的角度看,公司必然拓展合资车和外资车领域。目前已成功拓展上汽通用、丰田、本田、日产、奔驰等合资外资客户,公司内外兼施,必将在业务和技术上带来新的突破,长期来看路径清晰,前景无限。

浙江仙通主营汽车密封条,金属锟压件等其他零部件,产品技术在行业占据领先地位,配套自主品牌明星车型,业绩增长确定性高。公司是国内汽车密封件领先的供应商,进口替代逐步加强,汽车密封条配套吉利帝豪系、五菱宏光、广汽GS系、上汽荣威系等多款爆款车型,业绩高成长具备确定性。

近几年公司高毛利产品欧式车窗导槽持续放量,营收占比提升,公司毛利率有望稳中有升。公司欧式车窗导槽产品毛利率高达60%。欧式导槽2015年营收占比11%,2016年占比20%,2017年有望持续提升到30%左右。2017年一季度毛利率48%,高于2016年全年46%的毛利率水平。

产能扩充2倍,支撑业绩持续高增长。公司分别于2016年和2017年新建2300万米和6000万米橡胶汽车密封件产能,再考虑到新产品单价更高,产能足以支撑营收和业绩体量增长2倍以上,预计2020年营收规模20亿元。

公司自制90%的生产模具,既可以快速跟进主机厂的开发节奏,又可以降低购买模具费用,还提升了产品良品率。高效的同步开发和高于行业平均5~10%的良品率,可以帮助公司进一步打开下游客户的市场空间。欧式车窗导槽由原来的300~500元上升到500~700元,叠加涨价概念,市场空间提升50%,毛利率随新技术更迭显着提升。

招商、海通、方正、申万宏源等各大券商纷纷给予好评。根据各大券商的平均预测,公司2017、2018、2019年的净利润分别为2.31亿、3.28亿、4.47亿元,增长率分别为54.11%、41.69%、36.38%,对应的动态市盈率分别为21.53倍、15.21倍、11.16倍。

华金证券11月研究报告认为:我们预测公司2017年至2019年每股收益分别为0.93元、1.33元和1.83元。净资产收益率持续提升,给予了较高的投资评级。

中小市值股票可能再度崛起,未来行情可期

浙江仙通今年年初上市以来股价大幅攀升,涨幅2倍多。但在“二八”甚至“一九”行情的压制下,公司股价后期随同中小市值股票一同下跌,加上次新股泡沫的逐渐挤出,风险大幅释放,估值回归合理甚至低估区间。

叠加年底基金调仓导致的白马和蓝筹近期大幅杀跌,场内资金博弈方向发生变化,明年有望迎来“二八切换”行情,中小市值股票可能再度崛起。

公司业绩方面,浙江仙通2016年报营业收入同比增长38.21%,净利润同比增长70.98%,再往前翻我们还可以看到,浙江仙通在业绩上连续三年稳步上升,屡创新高。浙江仙通最新的2017三季度财报数据显示:三季度营业总收入4.96亿元,同比增长32.98%,净利润1.22亿元,同比增长52.39%。然而,好业绩并没有马上给浙江仙通带来好的市场效应,浙江仙通的股价甚至出现了相反背离的走势。

公司业绩是和股价挂钩的,业绩是股价的支撑,股价是业绩的表现,只要业绩足够好,股价迟早会回归到它该有的高度。

借着新能源汽车带来的风口,加上相关政策的加速落地,汽车产业必将再次迎来进一步发展的机会,与此同时,汽车行业的整个上中小游企业也必然随之兴盛,以弥补这个市场的需求缺口。浙江仙通拥有高度的客户认可度,或能在市场搏杀中脱颖而出。


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SHAOXING BOYI  AUTO PARTS CO., LTD.
绍兴博亿汽车零部件有限公司  
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